Do not hold your breath for another rate cut when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets next week.
Following cut after cut late last year and early this year, interest rates have remained steady for the past three months. And predictions are that the RBA will again leave rates unchanged for another month.
Westpac economist Bill Evans says he does not expect official
interest rate cuts in Australia in the short term unless there is a
noticeable worsening in the employment picture.
"The trigger for any movement in rates on the downside would
undoubtedly be a sharp deterioration in the labour market," he said
yesterday.
"The governor has indicated that he is somewhat concerned about the
prospect for an overheating of the first-home buyer part of the housing
market.
"A rate cut may not be necessary to help the housing market, but it
would be very welcome for business. It is business that is suffering at
the moment."
Now most economists expects that the bank will hold its cash rate
unchanged at 3 per cent next Tuesday, although it may maintain its
position of last month that "the inflation outlook (may afford) scope
for some further easing of monetary policy if that were needed to
support demand at a later stage".
In the longer term, the market is expecting that interest rates
could be higher by the end of the year, and definitely higher next
year.
Unemployment might be rising, but the government say it was a lot lower than
it would have been without the stimulus -- saving the jobs of as many
as 200,000 people who might have otherwise been laid off.
Housing prices have also held up better than expected thanks to the first-home buyer incentives.