Interest rate decision due next week

by Rachel Seymour 3/07/2009

 Interest rate decision next week

 Do not hold your breath for another rate cut when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets next week.

Following cut after cut late last year and early this year, interest rates have remained steady for the past three months.  And predictions are that the RBA will again leave rates unchanged for another month. 

Even if the RBA does choose to cut rates, it will be a minimal reduction, perhaps 25 basis points, and mortgage brokers as well as economists say homeowners should not wait for their mortgage rate to fall, because it's unlikely banks will pass on any cuts anyway. 

Westpac economist Bill Evans says he does not expect official interest rate cuts in Australia in the short term unless there is a noticeable worsening in the employment picture.


"The trigger for any movement in rates on the downside would undoubtedly be a sharp deterioration in the labour market," he said yesterday.

"The governor has indicated that he is somewhat concerned about the prospect for an overheating of the first-home buyer part of the housing market.

"A rate cut may not be necessary to help the housing market, but it would be very welcome for business. It is business that is suffering at the moment."

 

Now most economists expects that the bank will hold its cash rate unchanged at 3 per cent next Tuesday, although it may maintain its position of last month that "the inflation outlook (may afford) scope for some further easing of monetary policy if that were needed to support demand at a later stage".

In the longer term, the market is expecting that interest rates could be higher by the end of the year, and definitely higher next year.

Unemployment might be rising, but the government say it was a lot lower than it would have been without the stimulus -- saving the jobs of as many as 200,000 people who might have otherwise been laid off.

Housing prices have also held up better than expected thanks to the first-home buyer incentives.



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source: The Australian
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